Trump trade war hits whole new level with China

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The markets are rising this morning after three tumultuous trading days. The Dow is up more than 700 points, while the S&P and Nasdaq futures have each gained more than 1% in value. This comes after another volatile trading session yesterday, largely tied to President Trump's tariffs.

Despite market volatility, the President says he is not backing off his trade wars. When asked whether the overall tariffs are permanent or open to negotiation—a point his advisers struggled to clarify last week—the President insisted both can be true.

When asked, “Would you be open to a pause in tariffs to allow for negotiations?” he responded, “Well, we’re not looking at that. We have many countries coming to negotiate deals with us, and they’re going to be fair deals. In certain cases, they’ll be paying substantial tariffs. There can be permanent tariffs, and there can also be negotiations because there are things we need beyond tariffs—we need open borders. We’re going to get fair and good deals with every country. If we don’t, we’re going to have nothing to do with them. They won’t be allowed to participate in the United States.”

He added, “Virtually every country wants to negotiate. If I didn’t do what I did over the last couple of weeks, nobody would want to negotiate. Now, they are coming to us.”

The tariff battle with China is escalating to a whole new level. In a social media post yesterday, President Trump threatened an additional 50% tariff on China if the communist nation did not withdraw its 34% retaliatory tariffs on U.S. goods by today. In response, China said it would “fight to the end” and take additional countermeasures against the United States. The world’s second-largest economy hinted that more retaliatory tariffs could be on the way.

At the same time, the European Commission has proposed 25% counter-tariffs on a range of U.S. goods in response to Trump’s tariffs on steel and aluminum, according to a document seen by Reuters. These tariffs would take effect on May 16th, with others coming later in the year.

Meanwhile, the Wall Street Journal editorial page published three significant pieces. One titled “How Tariff Damage Spreads: Auto Edition” explains how the policy is already causing problems, especially in Detroit and Michigan. Another editorial discusses how the country needs a tax cut soon as a counterbalance to the tariffs. A third, titled “The Case of Mistaken Migrant Expulsion,” criticizes the Trump administration, quoting Judge Wilkerson, who warned that the approach is “a recipe for total lawlessness.” The Supreme Court appeared to agree in a unanimous decision stating that these migrants deserve due process.

Across America, especially in Michigan, there are growing concerns about the impact of these policies. Markets reacted sharply yesterday. Several times, they dropped suddenly in response to the President’s posts on Truth Social about targeting China. Then, when reports emerged suggesting he might be open to negotiations, the markets rebounded.

During a press conference with Benjamin Netanyahu, the President hinted at openness to talks with China and other countries, which had a somewhat calming effect on the markets. Investors are watching closely for any sign that the President is willing to make deals. However, dealing with China remains a serious challenge.

It’s a moment-by-moment situation. As soon as markets stabilize, another announcement of new tariffs sends them down again, creating uncertainty.

Some of Trump's longtime business supporters, like Home Depot co-founder Ken Langone, have expressed shock, questioning who is advising the President. Langone noted that Trump has supported tariffs for most of his adult life but is now actually implementing them. Wall Street figures like Jamie Dimon also raised concerns. Dimon said in his newsletter that prices will go up and this is ultimately bad policy.

Despite all this, the markets—at least in futures trading—are up slightly for now. CNBC’s World Exchange anchor Frank Holland reported that Dow futures were up significantly, about 1.5%.

The big question on Wall Street today: Is this a true recovery or what some call a “dead cat bounce”—a brief recovery before more losses?

It's too soon to tell. Variables include the trade war with China, Trump’s threat of over 100% tariffs, pushback from EU leaders, and overall mixed market sentiment.

Yesterday saw extreme market activity. The Dow swung 2,600 points from high to low. The S&P 500, often considered a broad market indicator, went from down 4.5% to up almost 3.5%, marking three straight days of losses.

These moves were influenced by conflicting reports: the White House considering a pause in tariffs, followed by statements reaffirming the administration’s commitment to the strategy.

Notably, the SPY ETF, which tracks the S&P 500, had its busiest trading day ever, with $127 billion traded. Retail traders bought roughly $1.5 billion in net stock purchases. The ETF, heavily dominated by mega-cap tech stocks—the so-called “Magic Seven”—boosted shares of companies like Amazon and Alphabet.

One exception was Apple, which saw significant losses. It appears to be bearing the brunt of concerns over tariffs. Apple is coming off its worst three-day stretch since 2001, losing around $640 billion in market capitalization.