How China's Happy Accident Could Change the Future

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Something unusual is happening. A new perspective is forming that the world’s largest emitter of greenhouse gases may have reached its peak emissions and is now poised to reverse them year after year. This, of course, refers to China.

China, known as the global leader in developing green technologies, has achieved remarkable progress in renewable energy. No other country has taken such an ambitious and comprehensive approach to transitioning toward sustainable energy. While China has been a major contributor to climate change over the last few decades, it is now positioning itself as a key part of the solution.

If China has indeed reached its peak emissions, the country’s journey to carbon neutrality might already be underway—unless economic pressures intervene.

China contributes over 30% of global carbon emissions, which may not come as a surprise. What might surprise some is how rapidly this happened. For example, countries like the UK, whose industrial revolution began in the late 1700s, and the US, starting in the late 1800s, took decades or even centuries to see their emissions rise, peak, and then decline. China, however, has compressed this process into just a few decades.

China's industrial revolution began in earnest in the 1980s, following Deng Xiaoping's economic reforms. Since then, emissions have skyrocketed. A glance at the data over the past few decades illustrates this steep rise, far outpacing other major polluters.

One major contributor to this rise is coal, the most polluting fossil fuel. Coal emits twice as much greenhouse gas as natural gas, and China relies heavily on it. The country mines and burns half of the world's coal to power its economy, which serves its population of 1.4 billion and is rooted in heavy industries that produce materials vital to the global supply chain. Essentially, when countries import goods from China, they are outsourcing emissions that would have otherwise been generated locally.

However, as China’s global prominence grew, its leaders began rethinking their approach. Hosting the Olympics marked a turning point, pushing China to prioritize clean energy and electric vehicles to clear its polluted skies. Simultaneously, Beijing realized the immense economic potential of renewable energy. Chinese companies, which lagged behind Western firms in traditional technologies, could leapfrog competitors by focusing on batteries, solar panels, and other cutting-edge solutions, bypassing internal combustion engines and gas turbines altogether.

Under President Xi Jinping’s leadership, China set ambitious goals, such as peaking emissions before 2030. Some reports suggest this milestone may have already been achieved, years ahead of schedule. President Xi has also committed to the larger goal of carbon neutrality, a move with significant global implications.

If China continues to lead in reducing emissions, the world would be in a better position to combat climate change—a key topic at the COP29 summit in Azerbaijan. This could also offset the lack of progress by countries less committed to reducing emissions. For example, former US President Donald Trump has signaled intentions to withdraw from the Paris Agreement, putting the spotlight on the US as a laggard in global climate efforts.

China’s investments in renewable energy have outpaced other nations. In 2023, its spending on energy transition technologies surpassed that of any other country. China now generates more than twice the renewable energy of the US. Massive solar thermal plants and advanced wind turbines highlight this progress, as do consumer-focused technologies like electric vehicles, batteries, and solar panels. China now produces 80% of the world’s solar panels, solidifying its dominance in the sector.

Renewable energy became China’s primary driver of economic growth in 2023, accounting for nearly 40% of GDP growth. Generous government subsidies played a key role, helping developers fund projects before they were profitable. While other countries, like the US and Germany, saw their green industries falter when subsidies were withdrawn, China maintained its support, ensuring the survival of these industries.

However, challenges remain. Sectors like steel and cement—both major sources of emissions—are only temporarily reducing output due to a slowdown in the property market. If China’s economy picks up, these emissions could rise again. The government and its industries face a critical choice: double down on renewables to secure global leadership in climate action or revert to fossil fuels to power an industrial revival.

If emissions have indeed peaked, the next steps will require significant political willpower. Deep cuts in emissions will necessitate difficult decisions, such as decarbonizing heavy industries and overhauling the power grid to phase out coal. These moves could cost jobs and harm influential companies, making the path forward politically and economically challenging.

The question remains: does China have the resolve to turn what appears to be a happy accident into a sustained and intentional effort to lead the global fight against climate change?